Would you pay $1/year for spam-free email?

A few months back, my colleague, Matthew Hurst posted a link to a interesting infographic from the New Scientist that visualizes data from a spam-bot called “Storm.”:

(click the image the see the full-size graphic)

The visualization is interesting, but doesn’t explore what I think is the most interesting question with regards to spam: “what’s the marginal revenue per spam email sent?” Based on some of the numbers presented, here’s my math to back that number out:

The sample contained 35 million spam e-mails, which was 1.5% of the total number of messages sent that month. Assuming the sample was random, a total of 2.33 billion spam emails were sent in a month, which extrapolates to 28 billion spam messages sent per year.

The graphic also notes that “Storm” led to $ 3.5 M in sales for that year (via .000008% conversion). Dividing (sales of $3.5 M)/(28 billion e-mails), we get marginal revenue per email = $0.000125 dollars of revenue per spam message sent. $1.25 for every 10,000 messages.

One of the main challenges with spam is that it’s essentially free to send out. So no matter how effective anti-spam software continues to get, as long as a campaign leads to one single sale, the marginal profit is essentially infinite. Considering this from a regulation perspective, if the cost of sending out spam were to rise above $.000125 / message, spamming would cease to be a profitable business.

So – what if  there was a required “e-mail postage”, or (gasp!) an e-mail tax? Kinda like the USPS, but way, way, way cheaper.  And not because we need to pay for the cost of delivery (like Post Office workers) but as a means of cutting down, or even eliminating spam?

I can feel the backlash from the Libertarian-leaning freemium crowd. What?! Tax?! The Internet needs to be free!? What about the unencumbered exchange of ideas amongst people!?

Here’s the back of the envelope calculation to consider the impact on a normal Internet user:

If a normal-human-non-spam sends 100 personal messages/day, that would be 36,500 a year. At a cost of $.000125, that would cost a whopping $4.50. A year. Less than $.50/month. For guaranteed spam-free e-mail. Let’s take the more realistic value of 25 personal email messages sent/day (about what I send), and it’s about $1/year for an average user.

(OK – yes, the mechanics of implementing such a system would be non-trivial.  But hopefully you buy that it’s a) technologically possible and b) the marginal transaction cost would be $0.  If so, then we can leave the specification details for another day and I can keep the scope of  this post to economics and go watch the World Cup)

why i ride my bike to work: a manifesto. of sorts.

this is part of my route home. drive? or ride? hmmm…

I’m not a hard core bicyclist type. No tats of chain rings. I think fixed gear bikes are fun but kinda dumb, really. But I’ve been commuting by bike for about six years now…and it’s just so freakin’ sensible on so many levels, I don’t understand why it’s not more adopted by the mainstream, and not more supported by government.  What follows is my case for why I ride.

Stars of the show:

1) Health & Fitness: doctors say that at least 30 minutes of exercise a day is imperative to living a long and healthy life. So, rather than sitting in a car or riding a train, and then going to the gym, why not get exercise while getting to work, which you have to do anyways?  In my case, with a wife in medical residency and a rambunctious youngster I am often in charge of, it is not easy to muster the time and/or discipline to exercise, otherwise.

2) Time: My commute takes negative thirty minutes.  How so?  Check it: riding from my house takes 30 minutes, all told, between gearing up, unlocking, etc. T takes 45 minutes each way, and driving takes 20 minutes on a really, really, really good traffic day (often double that). So on average it’s basically a wash between biking and driving, but biking is much more predictable.  And I am killing the proverbial two birds w/ one stone by exercising and commuting all it once.  If I drive, but want to exercise for 30, that’s 90 minutes total. Bike and it’s 60 minutes total (and I get an extra 30 minutes of exercise). And this is extra time I get to spend with my hella cute daughter.

3) Money: I ride 12 miles a day rather than driving. 60 miles a week. 3000 miles a year. Current IRS Reimbursement Rates are $.50…which is $1500/year.  Yes a bike costs money to maintain…but not $1500. Let’s say it costs $250/year for gear, and a tune up and a new bike every 3 years. That’s over $1000 in savings a year.   Plus – I am lucky enough to have showers at work. During the week, I take all of my showers at work on Microsoft’s dime. (Thanks shareholders!). OK, yeah, that’s like $3 a week of saved hot water costs.  But don’t laugh.  Every bit counts when you need to pay for daycare, OK?

Supporting Cast

4) Sitting in traffic sucks Every morning and evening, I zoom by the poor suckers sitting in long lights loking annoyed on the Jamaica Way. And the Riverway. And Route 9. And Memorial Drive.  See picture above.

5) Social Benefit: Global Warming In case you missed it, we (humans) are causing the earth to get warmer and it ain’t a good thing, despite what Rush Limbaugh and his goons say. So according the REI’s “Bike Your Drive” iPhone app, I save 11.4 lbs of CO2/day by not driving, which is worth $.10 according to (low) EU carbon prices. You’re welcome.  Purchases of carbon offsets accepted – just paypal me, and I’ll send you a certificate or something.

6) Social Benefit: Congestion I’m one less car causing the traffic jams on the Jamaica Way. And the Riverway. And the BU bridge. And Memorial Drive. You’re welcome, again. Traffic offsets can also be purchased. Same deal.

7) Marginal Cost = 0 (Parking & Subway Costs) How many times, when you are going out, do you not do it b/c you don’t want to deal w/ parking? Or paying for the subway? Biking gives the flexibility of parking anywhere lockable, and coming/going whenever you want. If I want to have breakfast or lunch or dinner with a friend somewhere in Cambridge or Boston, I don’t stress.

Yeah but…

1) I don’t like riding in traffic. It would suck to die Indeed it would.  In 6 years of commuting by bike almost daily, I’ve been hit once, at a slow speed, by a jack-ass who drove right through a stop sign, ruined my bike, and then drove away.  I was fine. This is a risk for sure, mostly b/c (in my opinion) drivers do not pay enough attention to cyclists. On this, I can say a few things: 1) You have a legal right to the road. 2) Respect Newton’s laws, especially the 1st and 2nd 3) Always watch for drivers opening car doors 4) Take the longer route if it means safer roads, as I do on my route. 5) Wear bright, garish, reflective stuff.  No shame in being visible.

2) I don’t wanna get all sweaty Luckily, I work in software (I dress casually), and luckily I have showers available at work.   If you have to wear a suit (sucker!), that certainly complicates things. But it can be done.  Keep your jacket and shoes at work, pack in a change, and shower.

3) It’s cold or rainy I don’t like to ride in the rain. Or snow. Or sleet. Or when roads are icy.  But you’d be surprised, even in Boston, how rarely that is – I drove maybe 20 days total in the last year.  With regards to warmth? Suck it up. Wear a jacket and gloves and warm shoes and you’re fine.  Have no shame about what you look like (see picture to the right…looking very much like my 8th grade science teacher who rode every day and I used to make fun of – sorry Mr. Howard!)

4) Need to get my kids to school/get groceries/etc… I purposefully lived near schools and day care centers.  I take my daughter three blocks on a bike seat, which she loves.  And actually think I got a good deal on my house because “the market” did not appreciate how easy it is to get around on bike from where I live.  As for errands, I have a rack and a bike bag, and often pick up burritos at the Kenmore Square Boca Grande, or a half gallon of milk at Harvest Market Co-op.  Plus, remember that half-hour a day I got back?  Can use that for additional errands.

So yeah – this all sounds great – where’s the love from the government? 

You’d think with such a massive win(health)/win(global warming)/win(congestion) that cities would go out of their way to support and encourage bicycling.  There’s some support from cities like Portland and San Francisco, and increasingly Boston But I still feel like a second-class citizen of the road, and would like to see more work done w/ new lane construction and ongoing maintenance.

Even though most of my ride is very pleasant and safe, I do need to cross the most unfriendly bicycling intersection ever twice every day.

But what really irks me is the IRS. Rather than support cycling, it actually, in fact, does exactly the opposite.  The IRS allows for tax-free payments of up to $120/month for public transportation, and up to $230 a month for parking. As of 2009, bikers can write of $20 tax free, but (prepare of the madness of government) anyone who claims the bike benefit cannot claim any other fringe benefit (like a backup T pass) if they do so!  So all told, with this incentive scheme, the federal government is urging you to drive to work.

While the government could and should certainly do more, I do want to give big ups to Microsoft (my employer) for supporting bike commuting. We have showers on campus at Cambridge NERD campus. Every 6 months, Microsoft pays for a bike tune up where the Broadway Bicycle school comes to campus. And best of all, there is a “stay fit” benefit that provides $800/year for fitness related equipment, including (most of) the Trek Soho I purchased last year.

I will capitulate that there is one thing I really do miss about driving, and that’s my time listening to NPR. Sorry Linda and Noah. But I do catch my man Kai on Marketplace when I get home. (I just learned he flew airplanes in Navy for 8 years.  Bad ass!)

burritos ’round the world: a @bingtmaps joint

One of the projects I’ve been working on at Microsoft FUSE Labs over the past few months is Bing Twitter Maps – showing geolocated tweets as they happen. (It’s one of the applications inside the beta versoin of a new Bing Maps, which you should check out, if you haven’t already). We’ve just released a new version of Twitter Maps that includes the ability to embed a custom Twitter map into your site.

Just like with the main site, there are all sorts of options – your map can be scoped to a @user or keyword, and show results from anywhere, or keep the viewport fixed on a location. The Tweets shown will always be the most recent that match your criteria. If at anypoint someone viewing the embed badge gets sufficiently intrigued to check out more about a location, @user or keyword, clicking any of those buttons links to the full experience at Bing maps. The embedded map will show Silverlight (cooler) if it’s installed, otherwise it will show a JavaScript version.

Being a California kid, who has since been dragged voluntarily moved elsewhere, I’m always curious to see if there’s anywhere in the world that can match the San Francisco Burrito. So here’s a Bing Twitter Map showing the most recent Tweets containing “burrito” anywhere in the world, as part of that elusive (and probably futile) quest.

Here’s the iframe code for this embed:

<iframe src="http://www.bing.com/twitter/maps/embed?version=1.0&amp;eid=785005709&ampkeyword=burrito" frameborder="0" height="350" width="590" scrolling="no"></iframe>

Check out http://bing.com/twitter/maps and the embed wizard will help you make your own map chock full o’ Tweets!

update!: pitchfork + coachella + twitter + bing = hipsters on a map! pitchfork, the quintessential indie-rock hispter music blog, has (of course) a site up following coachella, the quintessential indie-rock hipster music festival. to give their readers a chance to follow the action live, they used the bing twitter maps embed functionality to provide a live geo-stream of all the action. nice! (looks like Beyonce gave a surprise performance w/ Jay-Z?)